Israel's Airstrike on Iran Inflates Prices, Disrupting the Upcoming Super Central Bank Week

Israel's airstrike on Iran has not only shocked the world but also disrupted the approaching "Super Central Bank Week." As the Israel-Iran conflict drives oil and gold prices up, inflationary pressures are reigniting, causing countries to lean towards keeping interest rates unchanged.
The Federal Reserve may consider delaying its rate cuts, while Taiwan's central bank governor, Yang Chin-long, might signal a tightening monetary policy adjustment during the upcoming board meeting on the 19th. Japan's central bank will take the lead on the 17th, expected to maintain interest rates, though adjustments to bond purchasing for predictability are under discussion.
On the 18th, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates between 4.25% and 4.50%. Despite this, Chairman Powell faces a dilemma between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment. The Israel-Iran conflict has become a significant variable influencing inflation, complicating Powell's situation amid rising tariffs and oil prices.
The UK, Switzerland, and Taiwan's central banks will also hold meetings on the 19th. The financial sector generally believes that Taiwan's central bank will keep rates steady at 2%; however, with the implementation of reciprocal tariffs and the sharp appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, the economic performance for the second half of the year is expected to be impacted. This leads to scrutiny on whether Taiwan can maintain a 2% GDP growth rate.
With Israel's assault on Iran causing a spike in oil and gold prices, the inflation data for Taiwan may not be as optimistic as previously thought. Analysts suggest that if the Federal Reserve signals a delayed rate cut due to the conflict, it will provide less reason for Taiwan's central bank to lower rates, thus necessitating preemptive measures to counter inflationary pressure.
On the currency front, the U.S. dollar index fell below 98, with non-U.S. currencies resuming their advance. The New Taiwan Dollar rose to 29.502 during trading but ultimately depreciated despite central bank intervention. In light of ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-Taiwan trade negotiations, the New Taiwan Dollar may still face appreciation pressure, complicating the central bank's task of controlling imported inflation.