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US Treasury Bonds Maintain Safe Haven Status, Analysts Dispute Any Loss of Effect

US Treasury Bonds Maintain Safe Haven Status, Analysts Dispute Any Loss of Effect

According to Cathay Securities Investment Trust, US Treasury bonds are still seen as a safe haven asset, despite the global shock caused by President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2. This raises the question of whether they have lost their safe haven function. Observations suggest that bonds continue to exhibit stability, and there is currently no definitive data indicating that China or other central banks have begun to sell US Treasuries.

Li Yuling, manager of the Cathay Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund, noted that during the stock market crash starting April 2, Treasury prices increased, highlighting their role as a safe haven asset. Although Treasury prices later experienced declines amid rumors of significant sales by China, Li emphasized that no clear data currently supports this claim.

The decline in Treasury prices and rising yields reflect market concerns regarding the future performance of the US economy and the government's ability to repay its debts. Despite the turbulence, bonds remain a safe haven, especially as market sentiments stabilize. Li also pointed out that US debt is widely considered to be 'too big to fail', serving as a core component for central banks, banks, and insurance companies globally. While short-term capital gains from US Treasury bonds may be limited, there remains potential for long-term hedging and yield. Therefore, he does not recommend investors abandon bonds at this time.

He analyzed that as of the end of March, the yield on the US BBB-rated corporate bond index reached 5.35%, higher than the average 5-year yield of 4.32%, indicating a rare investment opportunity. Investors are encouraged to prioritize this type of bond.