The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research held a press conference today (25th) announcing its April domestic economic forecast and business sentiment survey. Director Sun Ming-De warned that after the tariff war, the currency war will pose a new challenge. The forecast indicates that Taiwan's economic growth rate for 2025 is revised down to 2.91% from the previous 3.42%.

The slowdown in growth is attributed to the upward revision of last year's base and the impact of Trump's tariffs. Director Chang Jian-Yi stated that the outlook for the economy can only be clear up to the second quarter, and future developments of Trump's tariff policy need to be monitored.

Sun highlighted that Taiwan's economy will be influenced by four uncertain factors moving forward: the developments of the U.S. equivalent tariffs after 90 days, China's economic performance, divergences in global central bank monetary policies, and the continuation of the global AI trend. Specifically, the exchange rate fluctuations between the US dollar and the renminbi will have significant implications for the Taiwanese economy.

He also suggested that if the New Taiwan Dollar appreciates against the Japanese Yen as a benchmark, it could reach a rate of 30, raising operational costs for enterprises and prompting them to seek hedging strategies.