Scholars Predict US-China Will Maintain Peace to Avoid War Amidst the Emergence of a Post-Hegemonic Order

The Modern Financial Foundation held a forum in Taipei on the 5th titled "Tariff Shock: A Major Change in the World Economic Order," inviting experts to discuss Trump's tariff policies and changes in the international economic landscape. Professor Hsin Tsui-Ling from the National Sun Yat-sen University stated that the world is currently in a post-hegemonic international order, anticipating that the US and China will maintain a peace aimed at avoiding conflict, managing risks through dialogue amidst their contradictions.
Wang Jianquan, Vice President of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, expressed concerns that Trump’s policies may marginalize Taiwan politically under the new international trade order, hinting at the potential for a currency war as the next conflict. He believes that while these tariffs target China, they could lead to inflation and tighter global monetary conditions, ultimately causing harm to the global economy.
Professor Hsin further analyzed the current state, noting that the global landscape has transitioned into a post-hegemonic phase, with the US stepping back from its previous superpower role. This change features three aspects: prioritizing national interests, a shift from a bipolar to a multipolar world, and the coexistence of various international systems, suggesting that war will become less likely.