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Taiwan Dollar Soars but TSMC's Profits May Be Eroded, as Predicted by Zhang Zhongmou

Taiwan Dollar Soars but TSMC's Profits May Be Eroded, as Predicted by Zhang Zhongmou

The New Taiwan Dollar has significantly appreciated recently, closing at 31.064 to the US dollar on the 2nd, a jump of 9.53 cents for a daily increase of over 3%. While this currency fluctuation indicates a flow of funds back to Taiwan, it could have adverse impacts on exporters like TSMC, particularly in the semiconductor industry.

Market estimates suggest that for every 1% increase in the New Taiwan Dollar, TSMC's operating profit margin may decrease by 0.4 percentage points. Although the company maintains its revenue target for the second quarter at between $28.4 billion and $29.2 billion, with a gross margin of 57% to 59%, and an operating margin of 47% to 49%, a significant and sustained deviation from the anticipated exchange rate of 32.5 Taiwan dollars could exert pressure on profits.

Zhang Zhongmou previously noted that most revenue in Taiwan's semiconductor industry comes from internationally priced orders in US dollars. With costs sourced primarily in Taiwan dollars, when the New Taiwan Dollar appreciates, the effective revenue diminishes. He clearly indicated that every 1% appreciation in the NT dollar leads to a 0.4 percentage point drop in TSMC's profit margin, affecting not only financial reports but also market confidence and stock price fluctuations.