Is the U.S. Restriction on H20 Chip Sales Meaningless? Expert Analyzes NVIDIA's Future Risks

On April 14, AI leader NVIDIA disclosed in an 8K filing that exporting the H20 chip to China requires U.S. government approval, and this restriction will remain in effect indefinitely. As a result, NVIDIA has set aside $5.5 billion for potential losses. Technology expert Qu Bo stated on the online program "Lun Zheng Tian Xia" that the U.S. prohibition is essentially meaningless, as it represents a loss of market presence; NVIDIA could lose between $10 billion to $20 billion just from cutting H20 sales in China.
Qu explained that the rapid development of AI in China has put pressure on the U.S., leading the Department of Commerce to impose restrictions based on computing performance. NVIDIA had planned to develop a downgraded version targeting the Chinese market, but the ban was directly imposed after Trump took office. Qu pointed out that although Huawei's Ascend series chips are competitive in performance, Chinese manufacturers still prefer to purchase H20 due to NVIDIA's software development environment, CUDA.
He indicated that following the ban, Chinese manufacturers will have no choice but to turn to Huawei, emphasizing that the U.S. restrictions amount to a loss of market presence, with NVIDIA's potential losses in China translating to substantial profits for Huawei. According to public information, NVIDIA's estimated loss stands at $5.5 billion, which only accounts for currently recognized losses, while if stock chips find buyers, the losses may decrease. Despite the ban, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang continues to visit Beijing, as business leaders typically do not choose sides and often seek to maintain a presence in the market. He views NVIDIA's prior downgrade as the first instance, with the possibility of future downgrades looming.