The US-China London talks will take place on June 9, leading US stocks to rise last Friday. Taiwan stock market enters the busy season of financial holding shareholders meetings, striving to recover the half-year line at the 22,000-point mark. Investment firms indicate that the revenue announcements of listed companies for May are coming in, the July equal tariff exemption period is approaching, and individuals are preparing to pay their comprehensive income tax, creating a combination of factors that enabled a significant rebound since mid-April, although the overall market is now in a consolidation phase.

Sectors such as tourism, travel, and food are highlighted as potential beneficiaries in light of recent currency market movements. Allianz Investment's Taiwan stock team states that while the market is in a consolidation phase, it is also waiting for clarification regarding various influencing factors. AI-related stocks remain the core of the bullish trend, while financial and traditional industry stocks are predominantly influenced by ETF component adjustments. In the past week, the fiberglass fabric sector had the highest growth, primarily due to tightening demand coupled with recent price increases from related Japanese companies; memory stocks also performed well in light of increasing demand for edge AI.

Looking ahead, the market expects corporate profits to potentially face downward revisions due to tariff and exchange rate fluctuations. Based on a profit growth rate of 13%, the current market PE ratio stands at 15.8, close to the ten-year average of 15.4, with no immediate concerns about overvaluation or undervaluation. In addition to the need for further clarification on various market variables, domestic capital momentum remains a concern (M2 and M1b year-on-year growth rates are 3.88% and 1.85%, respectively). Regarding the impact of US policies, Allianz Investment notes that high inflation can be viewed as one of the main costs of US policies, affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy direction and likely contributing to persistently high US Treasury yields. This atmosphere suppresses performance in the fixed income market and may continue to affect stock market performance until the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy becomes clearer.

In terms of investment recommendations, market systemic risks have exceeded individual stock factors since April, and the market's reaction to US tariffs has gradually cooled. Returning to fundamentals, the equal tariffs are disrupting corporate procurement and inventory strategies, so it is recommended to pay attention to dividend levels and corporate outlooks for the second half of the year. Regarding the industry, in alignment with AI-related trends, accumulating high-quality stocks opportunistically at low points remains a preferred strategy.

Additionally, considerations such as recent ETF component stock adjustments, dividend-related capital dynamics, and companies’ ability to cope with currency market fluctuations and cost-sharing implications due to equal tariffs should be noted. Meanwhile, in other sectors, the Allianz Investment team advises that while related stocks have shown some signs of recovery recently, many traditional industry stocks remain in a phase of digesting the impacts of US tariffs and currency risks, with individual stock performance still prevailing. The sectors of tourism, travel, and food are expected to benefit from recent currency market trends.