Business Media | Editor in charge / Comprehensive foreign media reports indicate that the collision of US-China trade policies has triggered a chain reaction, with bilateral tariffs rising over 100% in just a few weeks, severely impacting the export industry. On the 28th, Chinese officials held a press conference announcing a series of new measures focused on "stabilizing employment and supporting exports," while hinting at the possibility of subsequent stimulus policies depending on economic conditions.

Zhao Chenxin, Deputy Director of China's National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out at the press conference that, "The United States is acting capriciously, bullying others, and going back on its word, making it increasingly clear for everyone to see the true nature of the United States." He emphasized that China is confident in meeting its economic growth target of about 5% for the year, and if external shocks intensify, it will implement "gradual" policy adjustments to stabilize the macro economy.

According to research analysis by Goldman Sachs, about 16 million jobs in China directly depend on exports to the US. As the US-China tariff war continues to be in a stalemate, there have been instances of factories cutting production and some workers being forced to take unpaid leave, highlighting the growing employment pressure in China.

Last week, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security in China announced subsidies for companies that hire recent graduates, though the details of the subsidies have yet to be announced. On Monday (the 28th), further instructions were issued to promote entrepreneurship support plans, enhance vocational skills retraining, encourage export enterprises to transition to domestic sales, and assist companies in reducing rent and operating costs.

Sheng Qiuping, Deputy Minister of Commerce in China, stated that relevant departments will strengthen trade finance support, further expand the coverage and scale of export credit insurance, and establish special credit loans for large-scale equipment exports, enabling foreign trade enterprises to feel more assured in accepting orders.

Official Chinese data shows that the unemployment rate for the non-student population aged 16 to 24 reached 16.5% in March, a slight decrease from the previous month, yet the overall figure remains high. The urban survey unemployment rate nationwide fell from a two-year high of 5.4% in February to 5.2% in March.

With approximately 12.22 million university graduates entering the labor market this year, local employment pressures are likely to increase further. Goldman Sachs predicts that if labor market conditions continue to weaken, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to lower the policy interest rate by 20 basis points before the end of September and also reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 basis points to release more funds to stimulate the economy.