Short Selling Ban and National Fund Support Stabilize Taiwan's Stock Market Investment Sentiment

In response to the unpredictable tariff policies under Trump's administration, Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission continues to implement the strictest short selling ban and announced the National Fund's ninth intervention on April 8. According to investment firms, based on the past eight interventions by the National Fund, there is nearly a 90% chance of positive returns within five days after intervention, with an average gain of 5.6%. Extending this to 20 days maintains a 75% chance of positive returns, with the average gain increasing to 6.9%. However, investors should be cautious as insufficient trading volume may lead to repeated testing of market pressure, with a short-term outlook focused on volatility.
Last Friday, Taiwan's stock index closed at 19,395.03 points, seeing two consecutive weeks of decline, but the drop was limited to -0.68%, representing a decline of 133.74 points, with an average daily trading volume of NT$306.96 billion. In contrast, the OTC index rebounded earlier with a gain of 3.51%. To mitigate bearish pressure, the Financial Supervisory Commission announced on the 19th that it will extend the short selling ban and work with the National Fund’s recent market entry to stabilize stock prices.
PGIM's fund manager, Kuo Ming-yu, noted that the leading wafer foundry reported impressive quarterly results during its earnings call, with a first-quarter gross margin of 58.8% and a net profit of NT$361.56 billion, marking the highest for the same period in history. He pointed out that in the second quarter, driven by strong demand for 3nm and 5nm processes, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 13% is expected, keeping the full-year USD revenue growth target at 24% to 26%. The second-quarter revenue forecast is also expected to break records, offering reassurance to the market. Kuo emphasized that the tariff impacts under the Trump administration have escalated the U.S.-China trade war, with a rising trend towards protectionism and eventual supply chain decoupling as negotiation results remain uncertain. Currently, Taiwan's cumulative investment in the U.S. has exceeded USD 100 billion, creating around 400,000 jobs.