As the market focuses closely on the developments of the U.S.-China trade war, U.S. President Donald Trump recently sent a positive signal indicating that tariffs on Chinese imports may not be increased in the future and could even be reduced, resulting in a slight stabilization of market sentiment. The U.S. stock market was closed on Friday (the 18th) for Good Friday, but Taiwan's futures market rose by 34 points in the overnight session, with TSMC futures climbing back 2 NT dollars, reflecting market anticipation for a thaw in the U.S.-China tariff fight.

Looking back at last Thursday (the 17th), Trump repeatedly criticized Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for his delayed actions, causing instability in the market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average ultimately falling by 527 points. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showed relative stability with only slight fluctuations. Trump's comments revived concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Despite foreign investors selling off 15.2 billion NT dollars on Friday, total margin financing only slightly decreased by 40 million NT dollars, indicating that investor sentiment hasn't completely collapsed.

As we observe the opening of the Taiwan stock market today (the 21st), the spotlight is on whether Trump's softened attitude will positively influence the atmosphere of the U.S.-China trade negotiations. While the three major institutional investors remained net sellers on Friday, domestic investment trusts purchased a net 1.97 billion NT dollars, indicating that some local funds are entering the market. State-owned brokerage firms also recorded net buying, which further signals stabilization in the market. Although the overall chip structure remains neutral to bearish, sentiments are slightly alleviated due to Trump's statement and the expected clarity of international semiconductor tariff policies in early May.

To maintain market stability and protect investors' rights, the Financial Supervisory Commission announced on the 19th that three key short-selling restrictions would continue due to the persistent high levels of uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies and negotiations with various countries. Overall, whether the Taiwan stock market can stop its short-term decline and rebound still depends on the actual progress of the U.S.-China trade negotiations and whether Trump’s pressure on the Fed can be converted into policy momentum. Investors are advised to adopt a low stockholding strategy and observe whether capital flows back into mid- to small-cap stocks with policy themes for potential short-term entry points.

The contents provided are for reference only and investors should exercise caution and assess their own risks when making decisions.