According to Bloomberg, Michael Wilson, the Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, indicated that if the U.S. economy does not enter a recession, the S&P 500 index might have already hit its bottom two weeks ago; conversely, it could break new lows if a recession is confirmed. Wilson noted that until actual data confirms a recession or alleviates related concerns, the S&P 500 index is likely to trade within the range of 5,000 to 5,500 points, with the employment report being the most critical observation indicator.

CNBC reported that Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated on April 14 that the U.S. will not experience a recession this year. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, reiterated on April 20 that if the current tariff policies remain unchanged, the probability of the U.S. entering a recession (Voluntary Trade Reset Recession, VTRR) could reach 90% this year.

John Butters, a senior earnings analyst at FactSet, noted on April 17 that the bottom-up target for the S&P 500 index over the next 12 months is 6,704.67 points, lowered from the previous estimate of 6,805.81 points. Butters also highlighted that the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 stands at 19.0 times, below the five-year average of 19.9 times, but above the ten-year average of 18.3 times. According to FactSet data, Wall Street analysts expect the earnings growth rates for S&P 500 component companies for Q2-Q4 2025 to be revised down from 8.2%, 10.8%, and 10.3% to 7.2%, 9.7%, and 9.3% respectively.

On Monday, the S&P 500 index fell by 2.36%, closing at 5,158.20 points, marking a new low since April 8 and extending its year-to-date decline to 12.30%. Edward Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, noted at the end of March that the price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 is expected to stay between 17-20 times over the next two years, and if the U.S. economy enters a recession, the S&P 500's P/E ratio could drop below 17 times. Yardeni stated on Monday that unless there is a major financial crisis, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take action on interest rates.