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Short Selling Ban and National Security Fund Support Stabilize Taiwanese Stock Market, Increasing Return Probabilities

Short Selling Ban and National Security Fund Support Stabilize Taiwanese Stock Market, Increasing Return Probabilities

In response to the unpredictable tariffs imposed by Trump, the Financial Supervisory Commission continues to enforce the strictest short selling ban in history, currently with no limits set. Investment firms noted that the National Security Fund announced its 9th intervention on April 8, and based on past experiences, there is about a 90% chance of positive returns within 5 days post-intervention, with an average increase of 5.6%. If the period is extended to 20 days, the probability of positive returns still stands at 75%, with the average increase rising to 6.9%. However, investors should be cautious of insufficient trading volume, which may lead to repeated pressure tests on the index, keeping the market in a volatile pattern in the short term.

Last Friday, the Taiwanese stock index closed at 19,395.03 points, with two consecutive weekly losses, though the decline was reduced to -0.68%. The average daily trading volume was NT$306.96 billion; in contrast, the over-the-counter index rebounded by 3.51%. To alleviate short selling pressure, the Financial Supervisory Commission announced a second extension of the ban, working alongside the recent interventions of the National Security Fund to stabilize the stock market.

PGIM Prudential's fund manager Guo Mingyu pointed out that during a recent earnings call, the leading semiconductor foundry reported outstanding financial results, including a gross margin of 58.8% for the first quarter and a net profit of NT$361.56 billion, achieving a historic high for the same period. Earnings per share stood at NT$13.94. Strong demand in 3nm and 5nm technologies is expected to drive a 13% quarterly increase in the second quarter, maintaining the goal of an annual revenue increase of 24% to 26% in US dollars for the year; consequently, the second-quarter revenue forecast is expected to set a new record.

Currently, the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration continue to escalate tensions in the US-China trade war, with rising protectionism. Taiwan's cumulative investment in the United States has surpassed US$100 billion, creating about 400,000 jobs. In response to US tariffs, not only are the leading semiconductor companies increasing their investments, but other sectors such as electronics, information technology, petrochemicals, and natural gas are also expected to receive more focus for investment in the US market.