According to the latest study by TrendForce, although the U.S. has postponed the imposition of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, providing a temporary respite for laptop brands, the overall market remains clouded by policy and economic uncertainties.

Brands are set to expand inventory ahead of schedule starting at the end of 2024, boosting the year-on-year shipment growth rate for Q4 2024 to 5.1%, with Q1 2025 achieving a growth rate of 7.2%. However, considering the overall economic weakness and rising tariff risks, the estimated year-on-year growth rate for laptop brands in 2025 is revised down from 3.6% to 1.4%.

In analyzing supply chain conditions, TrendForce indicates that the U.S. maintains a 0% tariff on laptop imports from Southeast Asia while imposing a 20% import tax on laptops from China, prompting brands to accelerate shipments from Vietnam, Thailand, and other regions.

U.S. brands have proactively set up production capacities in Southeast Asia and possess greater flexibility for adjustments, allowing them to quickly replenish North American channel inventories within the 90-day exemption period. In contrast, non-U.S. brands face relatively limited adjustment space due to their Southeast Asian supply chains still being underdeveloped.

TrendForce emphasizes that the U.S. is the largest single market for laptops globally, accounting for about 30% of total demand. Therefore, while the short-term tariff delay might benefit brand shipments, there is a very high likelihood that end prices will rise, potentially suppressing both consumer and commercial replacement demand.

Additionally, if China imposes tariffs on critical components to the U.S., it would further increase production costs, forcing brands to adopt more conservative production and procurement strategies.

Brands are currently closely monitoring the progress of tariff negotiations between the U.S. and other countries. If the U.S. can maintain tariffs on Southeast Asia within the range of 10% to 20%, this may help alleviate manufacturers' cost pressure and stabilize market confidence. However, if subsequent negotiations break down and policy risks widen, the increase in laptop prices in the second half of the year and weak demand will likely be unavoidable, with 2025 laptop brand shipment growth rate potentially turning negative to -2.1%.