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Investors Must Watch: 5 Major Risk Signals That Dictate the Fate of the U.S. Stock Market

Investors Must Watch: 5 Major Risk Signals That Dictate the Fate of the U.S. Stock Market

The U.S. stock market has recently experienced significant fluctuations, with the S&P 500 index nearing 6000 points. However, Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Officer at Bank of America, warns that the market stands at a critical turning point as five major risks are set to influence future trends, and investors need to pay special attention.

The first risk involves key assets such as brokerage stocks, bank stocks, and Bitcoin, which Hartnett describes as the market's "traffic lights." A double-top formation in these assets could indicate a major market downturn, whereas a breakout and continued upward movement would signal a strong bull market.

The second risk concerns overvaluation in tech stocks, as the Price-to-Earnings ratio of the seven major tech companies has now reached 42 times. Although there is still room for growth, the risk of a bubble remains significant.

The third risk signifies that the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to a multi-year high, often serving as a warning sign for potential market bubbles to burst, and investors should be mindful of the impacts of increasing interest rates.

The fourth risk pertains to a weaker U.S. dollar, which could cause gains in gold and emerging market assets while potentially rejuvenating U.S. manufacturing; however, the uncertainty of Federal Reserve policies also heightens market risks.

Lastly, changes in global capital flows are evident, as gold and emerging market bonds attract investment while Japanese stocks and global equity funds see outflows, reflecting a rise in market risk aversion.

Hartnett advises investors to consider a combination of "bonds, international stocks, and gold" to diversify their risks, but he warns that the future trajectory of the market will heavily depend on these five risk indicators, and investors must not overlook them.