Market participants expect fluctuations during holidays, but analysts question whether the 'Duanwu' holiday might actually be a facade. The real focus should be on the four significant negative factors that will impact the Taiwan stock market starting the second week of June, which could lead to a correction pressure lasting up to two and a half months, with the possibility of a decline exceeding 500 points.

Experts warn against investing in small and medium-sized stocks with weak fundamentals or overvalued assessments during this time. Particularly speculative stocks may find themselves vulnerable to adverse interest rate traps.

Analyst Fan Zhenfeng from Yongcheng International noted on his YouTube channel that the key to this wave of downward adjustments results from four aspects: firstly, the upcoming release of May revenue figures coincides with a significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar by 7%, which will greatly influence corporate profits; secondly, key high-dividend ETFs such as 00919, 0056, and 00878 are entering a peak time for stock replacement, indicating a restructuring of market dynamics; thirdly, the technical monthly charts indicate impending adjustments from high levels, signaling caution for the market; and lastly, the upcoming peak season for dividend distribution is approaching, marked by Taiwan Semiconductor’s lead on June 12, which might trigger adverse interest rate movements.

Fan emphasizes that rather than fixating on whether the market will change during the holiday, attention should be paid to these concrete variables. The week from June 9 to June 13 is deemed crucial for observation, as substantial revenue and self-reported profit data will be disclosed during this period, and exchange rate factors will first be fully reflected in financial reports. For instance, looking at the average exchange rate in April of NT$32.64 to US$1, some companies have already seen their revenues eroded; the exchange rate in May further reached NT$30.2, representing a monthly appreciation of 7.5%, which imposes significant pressure on export-oriented enterprises.

Additionally, analysts warn against blindly chasing stocks that have recently been heavily invested in by high-dividend ETFs. Using Kuo Piao Jin (2889) as an example, due to its high dividend attractiveness, a large influx of capital pushed its price up to a peak, but after the stock replacement ended, it entered a downward correction. Once the dividend rights have been finalized, should ETFs adjust their holdings, a scenario of 'buying high and selling low' may arise.

Fan notes that starting from June 3, 00919 has initiated its stock replacement process, expected to surpass the halfway mark by June 9. Both 0056 and 00878 are also undergoing large-scale adjustments. Following this, June 12 heralds the dividend distribution of Taiwan Semiconductor, which is anticipated to initiate a broader adverse interest trend, potentially leading the index to fall by over 500 points in the coming two and a half months.

Despite short-term benefits from easing US-China trade tariffs, Fan points out that the index has been fluctuating at high levels for consecutive days. It is anticipated that around June 11, the monthly line will begin to flatten or even decline, forming a 'death cross' with the 5-day and 20-day moving averages, signaling emerging risks of mid-term weakness, which investors should pay close attention to.