The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May fell to 64.93, a decline of 3.28 points from the previous month, marking nine consecutive months of decline and reaching a 13-month low. Wu Darun, Executive Director of the Taiwan Economic Association, stated that the outcomes of tariff negotiations between Taiwan and the U.S., along with U.S. taxation on semiconductors, will be crucial to Taiwan's economic growth in the second half of the year. Additionally, the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar could exacerbate challenges for Taiwan's export-oriented economy.

Fubon Media held its shareholder meeting yesterday, where Chairman Tsai Ming-Chung noted that economic agencies widely predict poor GDP performance this year, with potential declines in consumer spending power. Factors such as tariff negotiations and exchange rate fluctuations may contribute to cautious economic outlooks and impact domestic demand. He emphasized that even though Taiwan's e-commerce primarily targets the domestic market, economic instability could lead to a decline in consumer confidence, affecting the overall retail sector, including e-commerce.

Regarding exchange rate issues, Tsai indicated that Taiwan has a significant trade surplus with the U.S., and the pressure for TWD appreciation is inevitable as tariff negotiations progress. He expressed hope for a gradual appreciation of the TWD, allowing companies time to adapt and avoid being caught off guard. Notably, all six indicators measured in May showed pessimistic trends, with the largest drop observed in 'stock investment timing,' which fell to 26.82, the lowest in 13 months. The second largest decline was in 'economic outlook for the next six months,' which dropped to 82.16, marking its lowest level in 13 months as well.

Wu Darun expressed skepticism about the outcome of the Taiwan-U.S. tariff negotiations, citing that the U.S. Senate has already approved a tax reform bill that permanently lowers corporate tax rates, which may pressure negotiations concerning tariffs. He estimates the results of the tariff talks could land around 20%. In addition to tariffs, the U.S. has also indicated potential taxation on semiconductors, posing further challenges for Taiwanese manufacturers. Wu indicated that examining the outcomes of negotiations between the U.S. and the U.K., where a 10% tariff rate applies to vehicles, could provide insight into the U.S. 'bottom line' in negotiations. He urged Taiwanese manufacturers to prepare in advance for these developments.