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On January 20, Trump officially took office as President of the United States, proposing several significant economic policies. Initial steps included declaring a national emergency at the U.S.-Mexico border, an energy emergency, and the cancellation of the Green New Deal. The contentious tariffs will be implemented later. This may lead to a decline in the dollar and a decrease in U.S. long-term bond yields, sparking interest in whether the strong dollar and weak bond trend might turn around.

With persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S., Trump has opted not to add to the burden for the time being; the tariffs against Canada and Mexico are merely postponed, and if implemented on February 1, the current adjustments could serve as a springboard for a future rebound. Trump aims to first resolve illegal immigration issues and reduce energy prices to avoid compounding economic risks.

Should the dollar continue to weaken, the primary beneficiaries could be the Japanese yen and the euro. The Bank of Japan has reiterated its commitment to normalizing monetary policy, which may further support the yen's value. In contrast, the euro futures have been volatile, and the potential request for the Fed to lower rates soon could offer more space for the euro to recover. However, care should be taken regarding tariffs imposed on the EU, which might directly affect the euro's recovery potential.

If the tariff battle eases, the market will likely anticipate falling inflation, propelling the Fed to continue lowering rates and creating opportunities for long-term bonds to rebound. Though the chances for immediate or significant rate cuts are currently low, investors seeking short-term operations or hedging may consider using the CME's 10-year Treasury yield futures.