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Optimal Entry Point for Taiwan Stocks and US Bonds in 2025: Are You Still Waiting?

Optimal Entry Point for Taiwan Stocks and US Bonds in 2025: Are You Still Waiting?

As the global economy enters a new investment cycle, there are long-term investment opportunities hidden amidst market volatility. Schroders managers noted that the current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for Taiwan equities has dropped to historical lows, highlighting emerging long-term investment value.

In light of significant corrections in the stock and bond markets influenced by human interventions in global economic policy, investors find themselves at the starting point of a new investment cycle. Schroders Investment Management has launched a new multi-asset strategy of 'Taiwan Stocks + US Bonds' to address the anticipated ongoing volatility in the global financial environment through 2025, combining growth opportunities in Taiwan stocks with the downside protection of US investment-grade bonds, aiding investors in seeking steady gains amidst volatility.

Manager Yeh Hsien-Wen stated that despite the prevailing uncertainty in the market, this is precisely the critical time for medium to long-term investors to reposition themselves. The correction in the stock and bond markets provides a timely opportunity for long-term positioning.

According to forecasts from the CME interest rate futures market, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by three basis points by April 10, 2025. Historical trends indicate that when the US economy enters a recession or slowdown, there is typically an accompanying larger monetary easing policy, which offers a rebound opportunity for asset prices, making it an optimal time to enter the stock and bond markets.

Regarding Taiwan stocks, Yeh mentioned that Taiwan equities remain one of the most promising segments on the global stage, benefiting from a complete innovative technology ecosystem. The current P/E ratio for Taiwan stocks stands at 13.5 times, lower than the five-year average and positioned at the bottom of the historical range of 13 to 18 times. While facing short-term pressures from tariffs and geopolitical risks, it is expected that the second quarter will gradually alleviate the negative impacts, leading to a steady rise starting from the third quarter.

Schroders' team will adopt a more flexible approach, utilizing hedging tools such as futures to maintain strategic flexibility. In terms of bond allocation, they emphasized that US investment-grade bonds offer both defensive characteristics and yield, particularly as bond yields remain at relatively high levels not seen in nearly a decade amid rising interest rates, which have drawn investment back to high-rated bonds.

In summary, the 'Taiwan Stocks + US Bonds' multi-asset strategy combines different asset classes and regional markets to create a resilient portfolio with low correlation that achieves better risk diversification and return balance amidst market fluctuations. Each market correction presents an opportunity to reassess asset allocation and long-term objectives.