Considering the Future of the Global Economy: The Balance of Power and Challenges

In today’s trade landscape, Trump’s tariff policy exemplifies the power struggles between nations, where the strong force the weak to concede. In this context, it becomes imperative to identify an economic system less susceptible to political interference, which is essential for mitigating international political risks.
The consequence of globalization is evident, with American manufacturing reducing to 10%, while the service sector has grown to 90%, leading to hollowing out of manufacturing and significant unemployment. Americans' low savings rates and high consumption mean their spending constitutes one-third of global consumption, explaining why the U.S. is the largest consumer market and a primary cause of trade deficits.
Post-World War II, the Bretton Woods system was established, anchoring currencies to the dollar. However, this system's exchange rate methodology differs significantly from historical gold standards. Before World War I, currencies were directly linked to gold, resulting in fixed exchange rates among different currencies, which are now more susceptible to government manipulation.
While the gold standard could balance trade deficits automatically, it also imposed significant constraints on economic flexibility. During crises, governments often find themselves ill-equipped to respond. Compared to the past, today’s financial systems are vastly more complex, necessitating an economic framework that can adapt to modern market dynamics.