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TSMC's Target Price Limited to NT$1000: Expert Analysis from Ruan Mu-Hua

TSMC's Target Price Limited to NT$1000: Expert Analysis from Ruan Mu-Hua

TSMC recently held a business briefing meeting. Despite showing impressive revenue results, the company's stock price has not seen much improvement due to the impacts of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump. Financial expert Ruan Mu-Hua pointed out on Facebook that after the briefing, KGI Securities released a report predicting a target price of NT$1000 for TSMC in the next 12 months, indicating limited upside potential for the stock price.

Ruan emphasized that the market will determine whether KGI's assessment is correct. The report estimates TSMC's revenue to reach NT$3.652 trillion this year, with a year-on-year increase of 26.2%, which is more optimistic than TSMC's own forecast of 25%. For 2026, revenue is projected at NT$4.039 trillion, representing a year-on-year growth of only 10.6%, suggesting a stabilization in TSMC's growth.

Regarding earnings per share (EPS), the estimates for 2025 and 2026 are NT$58.79 and NT$66.02, respectively, aligning with most analyst forecasts. The forecasted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 14.4 times and 12.8 times for 2025 and 2026, while the P/E ratio for 2023 is projected to be 26.2 times, according to KGI's report.

Ruan also calculated that based on the briefing, TSMC's revenue in the second half of the year would be NT$1.8302 trillion, while the expected revenue for the first half is NT$1.7877 trillion, indicating almost no growth. Coupled with an expected yearly decrease in gross margin, Ruan cautioned that these are challenges TSMC will face.